Saturday, October 5, 2019

Does Xi Jingping have a plan B for Hong Kong


As a boy in Hong Kong, I enjoyed taking a short trip on the iconic Star Ferry from Kowloon to Hong Kong Island. Even after migrating to Australia, I have always made it my mission to take at least one trip on the Star Ferry whenever I was in Hong Kong. It was on such a trip that I first saw Hong Kong people calling for democracy.

In 1989 while studying at the Queensland University I mourned with my fellow students for protesters in Beijing. This was a watershed for Hong Kongers. The day after the massacre, a million people (one in four) marched on Hong Kong streets in protest. It is hard to imagine that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would not have taken notice.
Prior to the massacre, the CCP sidelined the party’s democratic reformers like Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang. Zhao was placed in home detention until his death. After the massacre the CCP realised that they needed to re-brand themselves (Clive Hamilton’s “Silent Invasion”). Then CCP not only continue with their shift to market economy but also replaced Marxist-Leninist ideology with extreme nationalism. Every school child was brain washed to identify the CCP as China. Not being faithful to the CCP means not being patriotic. The CCP also emphasis the humiliation of the Chinese people at the hand’s foreigners. The CCP taught that historic events like the Sino-British Opium war and the Eight-Nation Alliance were a blight to China that a strong CCP/China would erase thus making China great again. (Never mind that Mao inspired Great Leap Forward and the Cultural have killed far more than any conflict with European nations.) It is in this context that Australia’s fate is now linked to Hong Kong. As part of CCP’s dream to make China great again, the CCP use their United front tactic. The result of these tactics has been well documented in the Australian media. For the CCP the new China will replace freedom with stability, law with ethics and democracy with enlightened rule (Clive Hamilton’s “Silent Invasion”). But even a quick survey of a number of Chinese dynasties will tell you that stability, ethics and enlightened rule do not work. And the CCP does not even have an imperial examination system to ensure good governance. In “Flyswats and Tight Traps” John Fitzgerald pointed out that China’s president Xi, at the beginning of his rule has to resort to anti-corruption campaign to rein in corrupt cadres not doing bidding of party central. However, there is no guarantee that the corruption will not return.  Without the rule of law, independent judiciary and proper governing system, China will be like a boat in a rough sea where the crew rushes between corruption and political campaign. Ironically, Xi and his loyal servant Carrie Lam are hellbent in destroying Hong Kong – the goose that have been laying the gold that has raised the living standard of everyone in the mainland.
Even worse the very thing that the CCP hates, freedom, is what distinguish Hong Kong from every other mainland cites. Many mainliners would point out the advances of cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen will make Hong Kong unnecessary. The broadcaster Richard Harris debunk this by arguing that Hong Kong has the rule-of-law and freedom of speech. How can investors have confidence when face with an opaque system?

It is certainly true that Hong Kong people are resilient but ultimately the ball is in Xi’s court. The standoff can be resolved if Xi will direct Lam to implement the five demands of: withdraw of the extradition bill (already done), retract the label of “riot”, release imprisoned protesters, independent investigation of police conduct and finally universal suffrage. The demand for universal suffrage was promised in Hong Kong constitution – the basic law and there is no excuse to deprive Hong Kong anymore. 
For centuries, Chinese rules have persisted with ethics and enlightened rule to find their Gates of Heavenly Peace (Tiananmen) but they have all been thwarted by the reality of the human condition. The Ming dynasty didn’t collapse because of foreign interference (the Manchus). The Ming collapsed because of internal discontent.
  
The west did not wake up one day to democracy, rule of law and human rights. It has taken over 800 years to travel from the Magna Carter to our modern democracy. It is time for China to try something new. Finally, Sun yat-sen , the father of modern China enshrined democracy in his Three Principles of the People so Xi has no excuse.

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